Scenario analysis method for innovation agencies 2010

 TAFTIE Taskforce Agency 2020

"Challenging futures: how can scenarios help to cope with uncertainties?"


December, 2010




Predicting the future is impossible due to the many uncertainties and contingencies. Who could for example, predict that in 2010 the future of the euro would be seriously discussed?


However, it is possible from the present to outline future realities based on trends and developments.


Not only the future of the euro is uncertain. The financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent economic crisis also affected innovation agencies. How to cope with declining private R&D budgets and declining budgets for innovation funding? How the future of innovation agencies in 2020 looks became topical.


This question was first discussed in the spring of 2010 by the TAFTIE Taskforce Agency 2020. The purpose of the Taskforce was to develop a method that could provide insight into developments and trends that impact the strategy of innovation agencies.


This handbook is one of the results of this project and describes the methodology as applied by the Taskforce. The handbook is primarily written for staff members of TAFTIE agencies, but is also suitable for other people interested in scenario analysis. The handbook contains a customized approach for agencies with the steps that can be used to perform scenario analysis. We also included practical examples and exercises. Hopefully, the handbook offers inspiration and practical guidelines for those who want to apply this methodology in their agency and with the insights of possible futures improve and accelerate innovation.


Jeroen Heijs

Chair of the TAFTIE Taskforce Agency 2020


Download the Handbook for applying the scenario analysis method for innovation agencies